America's Car-Mart (America's Car-Mart) Predictability Rank

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What is America's Car-Mart Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

America's Car-Mart Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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America's Car-Mart (America's Car-Mart) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » America's Car-Mart Inc (NAS:CRMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1805 North 2nd Street, Suite 401, Rogers, AR, USA, 72756

Website

https://www.car-mart.com

America's Car-Mart Inc is an automotive retailer in us focused exclusively on the Integrated Auto Sales and Finance segment of the used car market. The Company's operations are principally conducted through its two operating subsidiaries, America's Car Mart Inc and Colonial Auto Finance. It primarily sells older model used vehicles and provides financing for substantially all of its customers. The Company earns revenue from the sale of used vehicles and in most cases a related service contract and an accident protection plan product, as well as interest income and late fees from the related financing.

Executives

Magnolia Capital Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Campbell Douglas W. Jr.	officer: President	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 1805 NORTH 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Joshua G Welch	director	C/O VICUNA ADVISORS LLC, PO BOX 427, STONINGTON CT 06378
Julia K. Davis	director	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 1805 NORTH 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Leonard L. Walthall	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1805 N. 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Dawn C Morris	director	255 E. FIFTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
William H Henderson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AMERICA'S CARMART, 1805 NORTH 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Gremp Jim Von	director	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 802 SE PLAZA AVE, SUITE 200, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Ann G. Bordelon	director	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 1805 N. 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Daniel J Englander	director	C/O AMERICA'S CARMART, 802 SOUTHEAST PLAZA AVE #200, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Ray C Dillon	director	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 1805 N. 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Robert Cameron Smith	director	802 SOUTHEAST PLAZA AVENUE, SUITE 200, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Vickie D. Judy	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC., 1805 N. 2ND STREET, SUITE 401, ROGERS AR 72756
Eddie L Hight	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AMERICA'S CARMART, 802 SOUTHEAST PLAZA AVE, #200, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Adam K Peterson	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102